The truth about Ohio, and why it’s so hard to call

I’ve lived in Ohio almost 20 years; I moved to the state in 1990.  That means I’ve gone through five presidential elections as a Buckeye, even though I’m not a native. On thing has had me scratching my head. How did Ohio get to be a swing state?

When I look at the state’s 88 counties, I see a red state with blue spots.

The Plain Dealer had a great graphic on its front page. It illustrates my point.

The urban centers, like Cleveland, are predominately African American and Democrat. Those are the blue spots. The rural and suburban areas, especially in the central and southwestern portions of the state, are predominately White and Republican. That’s where the red is concentrated.

In the past, that difference meant that an African American candidate could carry the cities, but not do well in a state-wide election. The most recent example was our own gubernatorial race, where the Republican candidate, Kenneth Blackwell, crashed and burned. Some blamed it on his politics. I blame race; the African Americans who were running at the top of the Democratic ticket lost as well.

That history is why I, an Obama supporter, believed until say three weeks ago, that he would not take Ohio. Now, I believe he might pull it off in a squeaker because the economic collapse has worked in Obama’s favor.

Ohio has never recovered from the 2001 recession. This current economic downturn makes our future look even more bleak.

I’ve been following coverage out of Columbus, where voters tend to be conservative, and I’ve been impressed by Obama’s climb in the polls. That’s why I’ve concluded this: the fact  Ohio is up for grabs shows how successful Obama’s efforts are.

In 2004, Kerry had the cities, but Bush had a tight grip on the rest of the state.

One more point: if Obama does take Ohio, he will have done more than won a red state. He will have, in my opinion, toppled the obstacle to kept African American politicians out of the governor’s office. If, and it’s an if, Obama wins or barely loses Ohio, expect to the state will elect its first African American governor within a few more of years.

“Vote Early” was more than a slogan…

Voters hoped to avoid lines on November 4 by voting on November 1

…to the folks standing in line at the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections in downtown Cleveland. At noon on Saturday, the line of potential voters stretched for two blocks. Voting hours were supposed to run from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. But at 12:45, folks were still taking their places in line.

Cuyahoga Board of Elections director Jane Platten said more than 7,000 voters had come to the office on Friday and Saturday.

Loretta Malcolm, of East Cleveland, said the scene reminded her of South Africa.

“People were waiting for days, for weeks to vote,” she recalled. “They would walk for weeks, and then they would stand in line for days, just so they could get an opportunity to vote. And we have that opportunity and we should take total advantage of it.”

Loretta Malcolm said the queue recalled scenes from South African elections.

In Ohio, early voting started on September 30. It will end on November 3, the day before the election. Officials have promoted early voting as a way to avoid long lines on Election Day proper. Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner predicts 80 percent of the state’s voters will cast a ballot, either in person or by mail. In previous years, turnout was around 70 percent.

On Saturday, one woman ran her own campaign for Barack Obama.

Gayle Tunkara, of Cleveland, was asking passers-by to pray. Not just any prayer, but one she said “God had put on my spirit.”

“I typed the prayer up and I’m passing it out, asking everybody to be in agreement with me, and praying for Barack Obama.”

Tunkara’s prayer is quite specific. Not only does she ask for “divine protection as (Obama) continues his quest to the White House,” she rebukes a host of plagues.

Gayle Tunkara hands out her prayer for Barack Obama.

“…We pray, and take authority over hanging chads, miscounted votes, lost ballots, not enough time at polls, miscounted absentee ballot local and/or overseas…distractions of any sort, malfunctioning machines electronic or manual, unnecessary recounts, sickness or disease, favoritism and schemes of state…”

No, there was no prayer for McCain. In fact, the Republicans were conspicuously absent. There were no campaign signs for any Republican candidate.

At all.

Election news

With battles over provisional ballots, dirty databases and expectations of looong lines at the polls, looks like Ohio is going to be the place to watch come Tuesday.

So, starting on Saturday, I’ll be blogging the election.  This is real-time journalism from an independent journalist.

If you want fresh updates from Northeast Ohio in particular, and other parts of Ohio in general, subscribe by email.

Journalist by choice and mission

I was walking around my neighborhood a couple days ago. Suddenly, it seemed, all the businesses had Obama posters in them. But I was struck by the sign at one of the barbershops.

Christopher, the owner of Untouchable Barbers is promising a free haircut or manicure on Mondays to anyone who registered to vote. The promotion is going through the October cut-off date for voter registration.

It’s well known, of course, that Barack Obama is more than a candidate. Still, I’m always amazed by the creativity, commitment and passion that has surfaced during this election.

So I went home, got my camera and drove to the barbershop. I walked in, introduced myself and asked to speak to the owner. His portrait illustrates this posting.

When I left, I remembered why I am a journalist.