The truth about Ohio, and why it’s so hard to call

I’ve lived in Ohio almost 20 years; I moved to the state in 1990.  That means I’ve gone through five presidential elections as a Buckeye, even though I’m not a native. On thing has had me scratching my head. How did Ohio get to be a swing state?

When I look at the state’s 88 counties, I see a red state with blue spots.

The Plain Dealer had a great graphic on its front page. It illustrates my point.

The urban centers, like Cleveland, are predominately African American and Democrat. Those are the blue spots. The rural and suburban areas, especially in the central and southwestern portions of the state, are predominately White and Republican. That’s where the red is concentrated.

In the past, that difference meant that an African American candidate could carry the cities, but not do well in a state-wide election. The most recent example was our own gubernatorial race, where the Republican candidate, Kenneth Blackwell, crashed and burned. Some blamed it on his politics. I blame race; the African Americans who were running at the top of the Democratic ticket lost as well.

That history is why I, an Obama supporter, believed until say three weeks ago, that he would not take Ohio. Now, I believe he might pull it off in a squeaker because the economic collapse has worked in Obama’s favor.

Ohio has never recovered from the 2001 recession. This current economic downturn makes our future look even more bleak.

I’ve been following coverage out of Columbus, where voters tend to be conservative, and I’ve been impressed by Obama’s climb in the polls. That’s why I’ve concluded this: the fact  Ohio is up for grabs shows how successful Obama’s efforts are.

In 2004, Kerry had the cities, but Bush had a tight grip on the rest of the state.

One more point: if Obama does take Ohio, he will have done more than won a red state. He will have, in my opinion, toppled the obstacle to kept African American politicians out of the governor’s office. If, and it’s an if, Obama wins or barely loses Ohio, expect to the state will elect its first African American governor within a few more of years.